Market Commentary  09/21/18 3:40:18 PM Printer Friendly VersionPrinter Friendly Version

Friday, September 21, 2018


Corn futures climbed higher today on short-covering, continuing their counter-trend rally phase following recent declines. The December contract was able to end the session above its 10-day moving average at $3.54 ½. Technical resistance for December futures now sits at the month's high at $3.69 ¾. For the week, nearby corn futures were up 5 ½ cents. The Eastern Corn Belt is seeing rain today, but Illinois and west are expected to be mostly dry until early next week; allowing harvest activity to continue in many areas. The 6-10 day weather maps still look wetter than average for the Midwest with a cold front that will drop temperatures. Monday will bring updated U.S. harvest progress numbers from NASS. As of last Sunday, the U.S. corn crop was called 9% harvested and 54% of the corn crop was estimated to have reached maturity. The window for Canada and the U.S. to land a NAFTA deal is getting smaller. This week's round of NAFTA talks ended on Thursday with Canada's Foreign Minister set to return next week. The desired deadline for negotiations is October 1st. Trade representatives from the U.S. and Canada remain at odds over Canada's dairy subsidies and NAFTA's current dispute resolution policies. This morning, USDA announced a flash sale of 121,700 tons of corn sold to unknown for 18/19.


Soybean futures were unable to close double digits higher for the 3rd day in a row and ended the session lower as strong harvest yield reports and trade uncertainties continue to loom over the market. For the week, November futures were up 16 ¾ cents. Price action this week has been volatile. Bean futures appear vulnerable to a digestion phase, although the intermediate-term trend remains bearish. Traders continue to closely monitor news out of China. Most recently, China indicated it will be cutting tariffs on goods imported from countries outside of the U.S. as a way to curb domestic price inflation. The move is considered to be preparation to help China's economy weather a prolonged trade war. There remains much debate over how much soy China will import in the coming year. The effective price that China pays for Brazilian beans is now very close to the price that they would have to be paid for U.S. beans after China's tariff is applied. The question is, will it be politically feasible? Some would argue it might, as at least two cargos of U.S. beans are said to be heading to China currently.

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