Market Commentary  09/17/19 2:59:07 PM Printer Friendly VersionPrinter Friendly Version

Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Corn futures had a rather disappointing performance today as the market was unable to follow through on yesterday’s strong finish. The close in December corn yesterday was the highest since mid-August. December corn traded up near yesterday’s high but was unable to trade any higher. It then tested support today at the 20-day moving average ($3.65 ½). The lower energy complex offered resistance to corn today. The nearby crude oil contract closed up $8.00 yesterday on the attack on a major Saudi Arabia oil production facility. Crude settled back today as it was noted that the facility will have a majority of its production back up and running within 2 to 3 weeks. Equity markets were steady today as traders there await the decision of the FED on interest rates. That decision will be released tomorrow afternoon. The crop progress report showed that corn in the good to excellent category was unchanged at 55%. The expectation prior to the report was for ratings to be 1% lower. Corn is 18% mature and 4% harvested. Harvest is still a couple of weeks away in the main parts of the Midwest. The weather looks warm for the next few days with rain set to move through Missouri and Illinois this weekend. There is still no talk of frost into the first week of October. Ethanol production numbers will be out tomorrow. China reported their temporary reserves are down to 56 MMT, a fall from 200 MMTs in 2017. This fall in stocks is raising some doubt on whether China can fulfill its pledge to go to a nationwide 10% plenty by next year.

Soybeans finished weaker today by 6 cents as it followed crude oil back lower. Crude finished nearly $4.00 lower after the sharply rally yesterday. Soybean ratings were down 1% to 54% good to excellent. Soybeans are 95% setting pods, which means nearly 4 Mln. acres of beans have not set pods yet. Beans are 15% dropping leaves. There have been some isolated reports of bean harvest but not enough to develop any trend on yields. The first reported case of African Swine Fever was found in South Korea. They culled 4,000 hogs. The spread of ASF throughout Asia has severely hampered bean demand there. The weather forecast for the U.S. is warm and continues to help with bean maturity. A warm finish, however, is going to be needed to get all the beans to the finish line. Brazil is still dry and is expected to stay that way for the next few weeks. This has slowed any attempt at early bean planting. After today’s lower close, support for November beans comes in near the 100-day moving average at $8.86 ¼.
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